When rioting broke out during the protests of Freddie Gray's death (he sustained life threatening injuries while in the custody of the Baltimore police), a mother was caught on tape disciplining her son when she found him participating in the unrest. She apparently told a reporter, “That's my only son and at the end of the day I don't want him to be a Freddie Gray." This is a prime example of white privilege... how often do white parents need to train their kids to be fully conciliatory to police under all circumstances?
And not to diminish the African-American experience, this also brought to mind a recent report of a Maryland couple getting in trouble for allow their children to 'free range'. Privilege came to mind again.
As people, young and old, we all want the privilege of safety wherever we happen to be. Women want to be free of cat calls when walking on a public street; children want to be free (of predators) to play safely anywhere they choose to; people of all stripes want to be free of harassment (police and otherwise) when they are not doing anything illegal and free of excessive force when restrained for any reason; everyone should be free of fear that they may be targeted by a gun totting second amendment 'supporter'. And we should have the expectation of freedom from electronic monitoring unless specifically and explicitly permitted through legitimate and open judicial review.
It is a poor reflection on our founding fathers that rights once conferred by the Constitution are now privileges afforded to select citizens.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
The biological interactions of economic production
Econology Part 2a: The biological interactions of economic production
[If you haven't read the earlier installments of this series, please do. It is much easier to follow in order:
Econology Part 1b: It's not the economy, Stupid; it's economics
Econology Part1b: Econoctopus: the deep, insidious tentacular nature of economies
Note: I am neither an economists nor environmental/ecologic specialist. In reading and experiencing the economic turmoils of recent years and decades, I have noticed some parallels which I set out to describe in this series. They offer an alternative and perhaps unique lens through which to view the impact economics has on the world.]
In a previous post, I used a factory as a metaphor for the environment. A deeper look into the structure of ecosystems would reveal the relationship is actually reversed: environments are not copies of factories, rather factories copy ecosystems; specifically, economic systems mimic biological interactions of calorie transfer.
***
Economies all have common elements. One is the separation of systems of production (or economic systems) from markets (the mechanisms by which producers compete to exchanged their goods and services - to be covered in the next part). Another is inequality, a consequence of specialization. Differences in skills can be readily illustrated with a pyramid with the bulk of similar skilled working people forming the base and the remainder filled in with progressively fewer, more specialized working people.
A pyramid representing an economy is actually a pyramid of pyramids: economies contain all the pyramids of all the organizations within its purview; the smaller organizational pyramids, in turn, contain the households of their workers. Furthermore, organizations with more than one owner can be divided into two classes, capitalist enterprises (by definition, for-profit commercial enterprises) and non-capitalist enterprises (all non-profit and some for-profit organizations).
The majority of working people, the 'makers', form the base of the pyramid; they are the source of the products and services, the marketable output, of organizations. (for example, schools provide education; factories produce widgets; hospitals provide health care services; think tank produce analysis, etc.) The top portion of the pyramid is, broadly speaking, inhabited by specialized 'organizers'. They do not directly participate in the making of goods and services but instead, plan and implement strategies to increase the productivity of workers and maximize market return on worker productivity. Amongst their responsibilities is to direct the flow of capital; organize advertising strategies (marketing) and organize the organizers (executives).
[Note: Capital means all goods and services which can be exchanged for currency. This includes labor, materials, consumer products, land, structures, equipment and currency.]
A universal truth of productivity and capital flow in all organizations and ultimately, any economy, is that the goods and services produced by the makers is the primary source of all capital. The subjects of economic exchange are all products of worker labor and their value is a function of the amount of labor input. For example, dirt and water are essentially free for owners of land with dirt and water and have little market value. Bricks made out of dirt and water have market value and structures built of bricks have an even higher value. The difference between dirt and soil from bricks is the worker labor stored in bricks. Brick structures have an even greater input of worker labor which significantly increases their value over bricks alone. The value of services tend to reflect the extent of education and training required. Job skills which can be learned in a matter of hours (using a cash register) are less valuable than those needing extensive education (medicine or law). In return for their labor, workers are compensated a portion of the value of the goods and services they produce. By a similar process, the organizers earn their portion of the value of the goods and services produced by workers as compensation for ensuring the productivity of workers or lower level organizers. In other words, workers get paid to make stuff (paid with the stuff they make); organizers are paid to make workers make stuff (paid with stuff workers make).
The structure of production and direction of capital flow holds for all enterprises, both sole proprietorships and multiple owner enterprises. For single owner enterprises, the authority to make decisions lies completely in the sole owner. In multiple owner enterprises, the power to determine the distribution of worker produced capital is highly variable. On one end of the spectrum are capitalist enterprises where capitalists, as owners of the equipment and materials transformed by worker makers, hold ultimate power. They authorize lower organizers to carry out their decisions. And because the raison d’etre of capitalist enterprises is to maximize capital return on capital invested (i.e., workers produce as much as possible and owners retain as much worker produced capital as possible), it is the duty of executives/owners to minimize wages paid to workers and non-executive organizers so larger and larger portions of worker made capital is distributed to the owners.
There is greater diversity in the power structure of non-capitalist enterprises. (Non-capitalist enterprises can be broadly divided into (a) for-profit single share ownership - by workers - enterprises or (b) non-profit government or independent institutions.) Some follow the strict top down model of capitalist organizations. At the other extreme, power is equally divided amongst all members - each has equal say. (For this essay, socialism refers to this model.) In a fully socialist system, worker owners use equipment they collectively own to transform materials they collectively purchase into finished goods. Communication occurs across all strata of workers and organizers and worker produced capital is distributed according to a formula negotiated by all worker owners.
To recap… (1) Pyramid shape describes inequality of skills and wages of working people in economies, institutions and households. (2) The least skilled workers account for the majority of goods and services (capital) produced by various institutions. (3) In any given institution, power can either be concentrated in a limited number of owners or diffused among a large aggregate pool of worker owners. (4) Distribution of worker made capital is determined by holders of power.
As it turns out, economies aren’t the only entities with these four features. Living terrestrial communities form ecological pyramids with similar traits: the biomass at each tier or trophic layer reflects relative population of actors (1) and those at the base the pyramid produces the calories or ‘capital’ (2) which support the higher strata.
In natural ecosystems, plants are the makers and producers - they make more plants from simple inorganic carbon and water with sunlight (produce vegetative calories). Herbivores consume vegetation (vegetative calories) to grow and reproduce (make more herbivorous calories). Carnivores consume herbivores (herbivorous calories) to grow and reproduce (make more carnivorous calories). This pattern, the products of each trophic layer consumed by those above it, continues along the trophic pyramid to peak with apex predators. Only primary producers (autotrophs) are capable of transforming simple inorganic carbon into organic carbon (turn mud into bricks); all other subsequent trophic levels are comprised of heterotrophs and cannot make use of inorganic carbon; they must consume organic carbon (cannot turn mud into bricks, can reshape and stack bricks). Directly or indirectly, the existence and maintenance of all the plants and animals in a food web depends on plant productivity.
And just as economic pyramids are the collective households and enterprises of an economy, an ecological pyramid encompasses the individual biological entities and food chains within an ecosystem. Additionally, individual food chains can be differentiated by the biological interactions or strategies they use to collect the calories necessary to sustain life.
For instance, an example of an antagonistic biological relation is predation; essentially the biological interactions described above. In a food chain with a predator at its apex, food calories move up the food chain and power flows downward in that predators determine if prey will be able to continue producing - eating prey destroys their capacity to produce; authority over life or death… A lot like capitalism. Biomass produced by prey is consumed (taken in) by predators; predators exert ultimate control over prey (3 & 4).
Facilitative interactions where no participant is harmed and some participants benefit are well represented by social insects where the activity of each member of a community benefits the community in total (3 & 4). Take for example, a honey bee community...
In the case of honey bees, flowering plants (primary producers) and bees have a mutually beneficial relationship; the plants provide nectar and pollen in exchange for the pollination services of bees. The bees within a beehive community also have a mutually beneficial relationship. Bees at each strata carry out duties which contribute to the survival of the community as a whole. And while it may not be known how bees communicate or if there are strict lines of power, coordinated bee behavior suggests communication occurs. These include mating flights (queen and drones act in concert); egg and larvae care (feed needs to be appropriate to developmental needs of larvae); locating nectar sources (‘scout’ bees communicate direction and perhaps abundance to other bees); processing nectar (pooling of nectar and its concentration into honey requires coordinated effort by workers). The honey produced and stored by worker bees is thought to be available to all members of the colony… A lot like socialism. Production is a collective effort and seemingly no ultimate authority regulates the distribution of goods (3 & 4).
But it is not only modern economic systems (capitalism and socialism) which mimic ecological interactions. Sole proprietorships are equivalent to autotrophs, organisms capable of generating their own calories; thievery is a form of parasitism; feudalism is a variant of capitalism constrained by mobility (predation in habitats where limits on nutrient availability restricts mobility of inhabitants - oases; deep sea vents; caves; whale falls); various forms of slavery are variants of capitalism (predation) and ‘zombie’ parasitism where parasites alter the behavior of hosts. Given the diversity of biological interactions in the natural world, it is more difficult to identify an economic system without a natural analog than a biological interaction without an economic analog.
But historically, economies and economic systems are not static. Feudal economies evolved into capitalism (Western Europe) or were forced into socialism (Eastern Europe, China) and the world economies are currently in the midst of globalization. On a smaller, institutional level, other economic mechanisms modulate the extremes of capitalist and socialist structures. Unions are a means by which workers communicate with executives/owners which introduces a socialist element into capitalist ventures. Privatization of non-capitalistic institutions injects capitalist ideology into institutions and organizations which traditionally have goals other than generating profit.
To further explore the implications of these changes, Part 3 of this series will detail the role of markets and their relationship to production in the context of analogous ecological relationships.
Continued in Econology Part 2b: The geochemistry of markets.
[If you haven't read the earlier installments of this series, please do. It is much easier to follow in order:
Econology Part 1b: It's not the economy, Stupid; it's economics
Econology Part1b: Econoctopus: the deep, insidious tentacular nature of economies
Note: I am neither an economists nor environmental/ecologic specialist. In reading and experiencing the economic turmoils of recent years and decades, I have noticed some parallels which I set out to describe in this series. They offer an alternative and perhaps unique lens through which to view the impact economics has on the world.]
In a previous post, I used a factory as a metaphor for the environment. A deeper look into the structure of ecosystems would reveal the relationship is actually reversed: environments are not copies of factories, rather factories copy ecosystems; specifically, economic systems mimic biological interactions of calorie transfer.
***
Economies all have common elements. One is the separation of systems of production (or economic systems) from markets (the mechanisms by which producers compete to exchanged their goods and services - to be covered in the next part). Another is inequality, a consequence of specialization. Differences in skills can be readily illustrated with a pyramid with the bulk of similar skilled working people forming the base and the remainder filled in with progressively fewer, more specialized working people.
A pyramid representing an economy is actually a pyramid of pyramids: economies contain all the pyramids of all the organizations within its purview; the smaller organizational pyramids, in turn, contain the households of their workers. Furthermore, organizations with more than one owner can be divided into two classes, capitalist enterprises (by definition, for-profit commercial enterprises) and non-capitalist enterprises (all non-profit and some for-profit organizations).
The majority of working people, the 'makers', form the base of the pyramid; they are the source of the products and services, the marketable output, of organizations. (for example, schools provide education; factories produce widgets; hospitals provide health care services; think tank produce analysis, etc.) The top portion of the pyramid is, broadly speaking, inhabited by specialized 'organizers'. They do not directly participate in the making of goods and services but instead, plan and implement strategies to increase the productivity of workers and maximize market return on worker productivity. Amongst their responsibilities is to direct the flow of capital; organize advertising strategies (marketing) and organize the organizers (executives).
[Note: Capital means all goods and services which can be exchanged for currency. This includes labor, materials, consumer products, land, structures, equipment and currency.]
A universal truth of productivity and capital flow in all organizations and ultimately, any economy, is that the goods and services produced by the makers is the primary source of all capital. The subjects of economic exchange are all products of worker labor and their value is a function of the amount of labor input. For example, dirt and water are essentially free for owners of land with dirt and water and have little market value. Bricks made out of dirt and water have market value and structures built of bricks have an even higher value. The difference between dirt and soil from bricks is the worker labor stored in bricks. Brick structures have an even greater input of worker labor which significantly increases their value over bricks alone. The value of services tend to reflect the extent of education and training required. Job skills which can be learned in a matter of hours (using a cash register) are less valuable than those needing extensive education (medicine or law). In return for their labor, workers are compensated a portion of the value of the goods and services they produce. By a similar process, the organizers earn their portion of the value of the goods and services produced by workers as compensation for ensuring the productivity of workers or lower level organizers. In other words, workers get paid to make stuff (paid with the stuff they make); organizers are paid to make workers make stuff (paid with stuff workers make).
The structure of production and direction of capital flow holds for all enterprises, both sole proprietorships and multiple owner enterprises. For single owner enterprises, the authority to make decisions lies completely in the sole owner. In multiple owner enterprises, the power to determine the distribution of worker produced capital is highly variable. On one end of the spectrum are capitalist enterprises where capitalists, as owners of the equipment and materials transformed by worker makers, hold ultimate power. They authorize lower organizers to carry out their decisions. And because the raison d’etre of capitalist enterprises is to maximize capital return on capital invested (i.e., workers produce as much as possible and owners retain as much worker produced capital as possible), it is the duty of executives/owners to minimize wages paid to workers and non-executive organizers so larger and larger portions of worker made capital is distributed to the owners.
There is greater diversity in the power structure of non-capitalist enterprises. (Non-capitalist enterprises can be broadly divided into (a) for-profit single share ownership - by workers - enterprises or (b) non-profit government or independent institutions.) Some follow the strict top down model of capitalist organizations. At the other extreme, power is equally divided amongst all members - each has equal say. (For this essay, socialism refers to this model.) In a fully socialist system, worker owners use equipment they collectively own to transform materials they collectively purchase into finished goods. Communication occurs across all strata of workers and organizers and worker produced capital is distributed according to a formula negotiated by all worker owners.
To recap… (1) Pyramid shape describes inequality of skills and wages of working people in economies, institutions and households. (2) The least skilled workers account for the majority of goods and services (capital) produced by various institutions. (3) In any given institution, power can either be concentrated in a limited number of owners or diffused among a large aggregate pool of worker owners. (4) Distribution of worker made capital is determined by holders of power.
As it turns out, economies aren’t the only entities with these four features. Living terrestrial communities form ecological pyramids with similar traits: the biomass at each tier or trophic layer reflects relative population of actors (1) and those at the base the pyramid produces the calories or ‘capital’ (2) which support the higher strata.
In natural ecosystems, plants are the makers and producers - they make more plants from simple inorganic carbon and water with sunlight (produce vegetative calories). Herbivores consume vegetation (vegetative calories) to grow and reproduce (make more herbivorous calories). Carnivores consume herbivores (herbivorous calories) to grow and reproduce (make more carnivorous calories). This pattern, the products of each trophic layer consumed by those above it, continues along the trophic pyramid to peak with apex predators. Only primary producers (autotrophs) are capable of transforming simple inorganic carbon into organic carbon (turn mud into bricks); all other subsequent trophic levels are comprised of heterotrophs and cannot make use of inorganic carbon; they must consume organic carbon (cannot turn mud into bricks, can reshape and stack bricks). Directly or indirectly, the existence and maintenance of all the plants and animals in a food web depends on plant productivity.
And just as economic pyramids are the collective households and enterprises of an economy, an ecological pyramid encompasses the individual biological entities and food chains within an ecosystem. Additionally, individual food chains can be differentiated by the biological interactions or strategies they use to collect the calories necessary to sustain life.
For instance, an example of an antagonistic biological relation is predation; essentially the biological interactions described above. In a food chain with a predator at its apex, food calories move up the food chain and power flows downward in that predators determine if prey will be able to continue producing - eating prey destroys their capacity to produce; authority over life or death… A lot like capitalism. Biomass produced by prey is consumed (taken in) by predators; predators exert ultimate control over prey (3 & 4).
Facilitative interactions where no participant is harmed and some participants benefit are well represented by social insects where the activity of each member of a community benefits the community in total (3 & 4). Take for example, a honey bee community...
In the case of honey bees, flowering plants (primary producers) and bees have a mutually beneficial relationship; the plants provide nectar and pollen in exchange for the pollination services of bees. The bees within a beehive community also have a mutually beneficial relationship. Bees at each strata carry out duties which contribute to the survival of the community as a whole. And while it may not be known how bees communicate or if there are strict lines of power, coordinated bee behavior suggests communication occurs. These include mating flights (queen and drones act in concert); egg and larvae care (feed needs to be appropriate to developmental needs of larvae); locating nectar sources (‘scout’ bees communicate direction and perhaps abundance to other bees); processing nectar (pooling of nectar and its concentration into honey requires coordinated effort by workers). The honey produced and stored by worker bees is thought to be available to all members of the colony… A lot like socialism. Production is a collective effort and seemingly no ultimate authority regulates the distribution of goods (3 & 4).
But it is not only modern economic systems (capitalism and socialism) which mimic ecological interactions. Sole proprietorships are equivalent to autotrophs, organisms capable of generating their own calories; thievery is a form of parasitism; feudalism is a variant of capitalism constrained by mobility (predation in habitats where limits on nutrient availability restricts mobility of inhabitants - oases; deep sea vents; caves; whale falls); various forms of slavery are variants of capitalism (predation) and ‘zombie’ parasitism where parasites alter the behavior of hosts. Given the diversity of biological interactions in the natural world, it is more difficult to identify an economic system without a natural analog than a biological interaction without an economic analog.
But historically, economies and economic systems are not static. Feudal economies evolved into capitalism (Western Europe) or were forced into socialism (Eastern Europe, China) and the world economies are currently in the midst of globalization. On a smaller, institutional level, other economic mechanisms modulate the extremes of capitalist and socialist structures. Unions are a means by which workers communicate with executives/owners which introduces a socialist element into capitalist ventures. Privatization of non-capitalistic institutions injects capitalist ideology into institutions and organizations which traditionally have goals other than generating profit.
To further explore the implications of these changes, Part 3 of this series will detail the role of markets and their relationship to production in the context of analogous ecological relationships.
Continued in Econology Part 2b: The geochemistry of markets.
Friday, April 3, 2015
The Iran nuclear deal is so bad, it should be applied to the financial industry
There's a framework of a deal with Iran over nuclear weapons. A deal is needed because a nuclear Iran threatens the stability of the Middle East. And there's a lot of rumbling over how bad it is. In fact, it's so bad, the banks which threaten the stability of the economy (in fact, they all but collapsed the economy and have taken serious shots at our cities) should be held to the same standards...
***
[Note: My only contribution to the text below is in red.]
Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program
Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters over the coming months.
(Roughly equivalent terms for financial industry)
Enrichment (sale of Risky Financial Instruments - RFI)
Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge. (reduce RFI sales force)
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years. (set limits on sale of RFIs)
Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years. (reduce numbers of RFIs)
All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment. (store excess RFIs in warehouse guarded by regulators)
Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years. (no new financial instruments research arms for 15 years)
Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework. (extend spread risk of likely tanking economy 40 time periods into the future)
Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium (convert equivalent fraction of RFI sales force to other purposes)
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years. (converted sales force from above is banned from RFI sales for 15 years)
Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center. (converted sales force from above can only sell safe investments)
Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years. (no new financial instruments research arms for 15 years)
Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years. (converted sales force from above cannot handle or support sales of RFIs for 15 years)
Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.
Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.
Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.
For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.
Inspections and Transparency (to be overseen by Financial regulators)
The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies. (regulators will have regular access to all commercial facilities)
Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program. (regulators will have regular access to all records and contracted work)
Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance. (access of regulators good for 20 years)
All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure. (establish clean and clear channels of outside contracting/contracts)
Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country. (regulators can inspect other suspicious sites)
Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities. (regulators require early notification of expansion/resumption of RFI research/sales)
Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.
Reactors and Reprocessing (Redesign RFIs to be safe financial instruments with reasonable guarantee of return)
Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.
Sanctions (Rescind charter(s) of non-compliant banking and financial institutions; place non-compliant banking and financial institutions under Receivership; restrict access of non-compliant banking and financial institutions to funds from Frederal Reserve)
Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.
Phasing (agreement is binding for times stated within)
For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.
***
[Note: My only contribution to the text below is in red.]
Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program
Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters over the coming months.
(Roughly equivalent terms for financial industry)
Enrichment (sale of Risky Financial Instruments - RFI)
Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge. (reduce RFI sales force)
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years. (set limits on sale of RFIs)
Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years. (reduce numbers of RFIs)
All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment. (store excess RFIs in warehouse guarded by regulators)
Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years. (no new financial instruments research arms for 15 years)
Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework. (extend spread risk of likely tanking economy 40 time periods into the future)
Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium (convert equivalent fraction of RFI sales force to other purposes)
Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years. (converted sales force from above is banned from RFI sales for 15 years)
Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center. (converted sales force from above can only sell safe investments)
Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years. (no new financial instruments research arms for 15 years)
Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years. (converted sales force from above cannot handle or support sales of RFIs for 15 years)
Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.
Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.
Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.
For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.
Inspections and Transparency (to be overseen by Financial regulators)
The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies. (regulators will have regular access to all commercial facilities)
Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program. (regulators will have regular access to all records and contracted work)
Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance. (access of regulators good for 20 years)
All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure. (establish clean and clear channels of outside contracting/contracts)
Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country. (regulators can inspect other suspicious sites)
Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities. (regulators require early notification of expansion/resumption of RFI research/sales)
Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.
Reactors and Reprocessing (Redesign RFIs to be safe financial instruments with reasonable guarantee of return)
Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years.
Sanctions (Rescind charter(s) of non-compliant banking and financial institutions; place non-compliant banking and financial institutions under Receivership; restrict access of non-compliant banking and financial institutions to funds from Frederal Reserve)
Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.
Phasing (agreement is binding for times stated within)
For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Bathroom transphobia, a cure
I've seen a number of articles recently about transgender children and attempts to regulate their bathroom use per gender. One way to completely resolve these issues is to convert all public bathrooms to unisex... it would void transphobic hysteria with hysteria about general sexual predation. At least the latter is more credible.
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