Thursday, August 31, 2017

Economic policy is not based on science

Trump's plan would mean 'a huge increase in the budget deficit primarily to give tax cuts to the richest people in the country,' says economist Dean Baker. 'I don't think most people would think that sounds like a very good idea'
 That climate change is occurring and caused by human activity is at near universal consensus of climate scientists. And it doesn't take a degree in economics to understand that climate change will have devastating effects on economies. One simple equation: climate change = less food = fewer or hungry people = smaller economy. And yet there are economists who argue climate mitigation to too expensive and bad for the economy. According to economists, science is bad economics.  The tax policy DJT is proposing is based on supply-side-economics and the Laffer curve which has essentially no scientific consensus; the Laffer curve doesn't even have units. According to (some) very influential economists, no science is good economics.   So is economics a science or ideology? I once compared science and religion (ideology): While there are some similarities, they are very important and significant differences. Both science and religion arise from the same social need; in the face of complete uncertainty, people want rules of behavior/conduct to avoid catastrophic outcomes. Religions codify collections of old anecdotes into rules of conduct. For example, biblical strictures against adultery/infidelity likely arise from a tragic outcome of a few adulterous incidents. But not all affairs will end in tragedy. This is akin to associating good fortune to a charm because you happened to be wearing it on the day of a good event (promotion, favorite team winning). Religions use anecdotes to predict the future. Scientific conclusions are based on carefully controlled and precisely collected data (if properly controlled, a set of anecdotes is data). Scientific predictions based on data are restricted to well defined circumstances. For example, science predicts two doses of measles vaccine are 97% effective. When sufficiently complete data is available, science is remarkably accurate in its predictions. 
[Climate] Science predicts coming changes in the climate will cause sea levels to rise, increase storm severity, and increase severity of droughts and floods, all of which will negatively impact economies. Most orthodox [neoliberal] economists pooh-pooh the predictive value of [climate] science in favor of data-free economic theories, more ideology than science.
…DJT’s tax plan is nonsense, like almost all economic policy.

Post title: Trump's Tax Cut Plan Alienates His Base

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